Have 30th percentile LHAs caught up with median LHAs in some London BRMAs?

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  • #39549
    guy
    Participant

    I was checking our monthly report from the Civica LHA anniversary check that recalculates LHAs at their anniversary the other day. In particular I was focusing on one bedroom self contained claims, to identify anymmore potentially affected by the SAR changes post January 2012. However, I found that for some of our London BRMAs, 30th percentile LHA rates in October 2011 and November 2011 had caught up and overtaken median LHAs from October 2010 and November 2010. This is not the case, I might stress, for all LHA room sizes and BRMAs. But look at the figures below for one bedrrom self contained.
    Outer South West London|Median one bed LHA Nov 2010One bed LHA Nov 2011
    £195.62 £196.15

    Outer South London |Median one bed LHA Nov 2010One bed LHA Nov 2011
    £155.34 £155.77

    Does this mean that these claims will get nine month TP? :~

    But, more importantly, could it confirm that rents have been rising in London at such a rate (10% or more), that the Government’s attempts to curb HB (LHA) expenditure is being undermined by the trend upwards.
    :~

    #112498
    peterdelamothe
    Keymaster

    Very interesting!!

    #112592
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Thanks for this Guy. I’m off to do a bit of analysis now.

    #113251
    HaighR
    Participant

    The same has happend in our area (Lewes DC)

    #113259
    Anonymous
    Guest

    This is the pattern at Chichester. There is little difference, if any, at the lower end of the market so predictions of apocolypse have not come to pass. Blows a hole in the Treasury predictions though and that is why LHA will only rise by the CPI in future and not with reference to anything that is actually happening in the market.

    #113262
    Anonymous
    Guest

    There are three possible explanations aren’t there:

    – rents are rising, so the amount that would have been 50th percentile a year ago is 30th percentile now
    – rents are bunched so thickly in the middle range that there isn’t much difference between 30th and 70th percentile
    – LHA market evidence is still partly made up by the Rent Officer because of all those qualifications and assumptions in the Schedules to the RO Order

    Probably a bit of all three I reckon

    #113264
    andyrichards
    Participant

    I missed Grant Shapps on Question Time last night so I don’t know if anyone asked him how his plans for getting rents down just by cutting HB were coming along…….

    #113266
    Anonymous
    Guest

    If mortgages are difficult to obtain then rents are going rise and continue to rise. Apparently Osborne is going to attempt to help those who are struggling to get a 25% deposit when he delivers his autumn statement.

    #113267
    HaighR
    Participant

    [quote=Iain Billinger]If mortgages are difficult to obtain then rents are going rise and continue to rise. Apparently Osborne is going to attempt to help those who are struggling to get a 25% deposit when he delivers his autumn statement.[/quote]

    Well that’s all right then, we can all go home now because the economy will be saved :p

    #113268
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Not likely. Not with this lot.

    They are to busy trying to blaim the eurozone for our economic woes rather than accepting the need for some good old fashioned Keynesian economic theory.

    #113269
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Something that’s not much talked about now, but which makes this recession different from the one in the 80s, is that it’s not just the loss of manufacturing jobs and outsourcing of call centres that’s creating a jobs crisis. Back then a lot of school leavers could get employment in what might loosely be called admin/clerical work but now those types of jobs no longer exist because Bill Gates and Steve Jobs have done for them. Does anyone remember employing clerical assistants to link post?

    #113270
    John Boxall
    Participant

    Clerical assistants – crumbs!

    I was one once

    Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery. The blossom is blighted, the leaf is withered, the god of day goes down upon the dreary scene, and—and in short you are for ever floored.

    Wilkins Micawber, Ch12 David Copperfield

    #113275
    Anonymous
    Guest

    [quote=John Boxall]Clerical assistants – crumbs!

    I was one once[/quote]

    I think we all were 🙂

    #113289
    nickkeogh
    Participant

    [quote=andyrichards]I missed Grant Shapps on Question Time last night so I don’t know if anyone asked him how his plans for getting rents down just by cutting HB were coming along…….[/quote]

    He wasn’t asked anything like that. He did say that house building was up 25% under this government though.

    #113290
    Anonymous
    Guest

    [quote=nickkeoghHe wasn’t asked anything like that. He did say that house building was up 25% under this government though.[/quote]

    I thought there was a record low number of new houses built last year??? Lies, damned lies and statistics!

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